🔗 Share this article

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.