A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
